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A theory of change describes how the intervention is expected to affect the outcomes of interest(based on theory) but it does not demonstrate whether the intervention causes the observed outcomes. It usually includes the most important outcomes(intermediate and final) that are critical to the casual chain, even if not all will be measured(see [https://github.com/worldbank/DIMEwiki/blob/master/Topics/Impact_Evaluation_Design/i2i_ConceptNote_Template.pdf example]).
<onlyinclude>A theory of change is a detailed description of the mechanisms through which a change is expected to occur in a particular situation. A theory of change identifies the goals, preconditions, requirements, assumptions, interventions, and indicators of a program, providing important insight into and guidance on intervention and '''impact evaluation''' design. </onlyinclude>
 


== Read First ==
== Read First ==
A theory of change sets the structure for the hypotheses, evaluation questions, and outcomes of interest. It also lists key indicators for developing the implementation protocol and IE monitoring system aimed at understanding what is being evaluated, and whether the critical intervention activities/components were implemented/taken up as planned.
* A theory of change is best completed in the planning stages of an '''impact evaluation''', as it can play a critical role in guiding intervention design, [[Primary Data Collection|data collection]], [[Data Analysis|analysis]], and reporting.
 
 
== Guidelines ==
=== How does a theory of change work? ===


''From http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/:''
==Building the Theory of Change==
According to the Theory of Change [http://www.theoryofchange.org/what-is-theory-of-change/how-does-theory-of-change-work/ website], a theory of change is built in six steps:
#Identify long-term goals.
#Backwards map and connect the preconditions and requirements necessary to achieve the goals. Explain why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
#Identify your basic assumptions about the context.
#Identify the interventions that will create your desired change.
#Develop indicators to measure outcomes.
#Write a narrative to explain the logic of the interventions.


TOC maps out your initiative through 6 stages:
[https://www.povertyactionlab.org/sites/default/files/3.%20Theory%20of%20Change%202014.03.10.pdf Poverty Action Lab] identifies seven similar steps to building a theory of change:
#Analyze the situation
#Clarify the program goal
#Design the program/product
#Map the causal pathway
#Identify explicit assumptions
#Design specific, measurable, achievable, reliable and time-bound indicators
#Convert to logical framework.


# Identifying long-term goals
==Applications==
# Backwards mapping and connecting the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that goal and explaining why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
The theory of change uses backwards mapping to create a set of connected outcomes known as the “pathway of change”. The “pathway of change” graphically represents the change process and acts as the skeleton around which the other elements of the theory are developed. The “pathway of change” typically follows the following structure:
# Identifying your basic assumptions about the context.
# Identifying the interventions that your initiative will perform to create your desired change.
# Developing indicators to measure your outcomes to assess the performance of your initiative.
# Writing a narrative to explain the logic of your initiative.


The TOC process hinges upon defining all of the necessary and sufficient conditions required to bring about a given long term outcome. TOC uses backwards mapping requiring planners to think in backwards steps from the long-term goal to the intermediate and then early-term changes that would be required to cause the desired change. This creates a set of connected outcomes known as a “pathway of change”. A “pathway of change” graphically represents the change process as it is understood by the initiative planners and is the skeleton around which the other elements of the theory are developed.
If '''inputs''' and '''activities''' produce '''outputs''', this should lead to '''outcomes''' which will ultimately contribute to '''goals'''.


A theory of change empowers organizations and initiatives to achieve, measure, and show their impact. It provides evaluators with a framework on which they can base hypotheses, evaluation questions, and outcomes of interest. It also identifies key indicators, guiding evaluators towards the “what” and “when” of evaluation and strengthening monitoring systems overall.


== Back to Parent ==
== Back to Parent ==
This article is part of the topic [[Impact Evaluation Design]]
This article is part of the topic [[Experimental Methods]]


== Additional Resources ==
== Additional Resources ==
 
* The [http://www.theoryofchange.org/ Theory of Change] website, including its [http://www.theoryofchange.org/library/toc-examples/ library] of theory of change examples
* For detailed explanations and examples, see: http://www.theoryofchange.org/  
* Innovation for Poverty Action’s [https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Goldilocks-Deep-Dive-Guiding-Your-Program-to-Build-Theory-of-Change.pdf Guiding Your Program to Build a Theory of Change]
''Theory of Change has the power to radically enhance the capacity of social change organizations and initiatives to achieve their goals and demonstrate their impact. It grounds planning and strategy in the reality and evidence base of what is necessary to achieve change. Theory of Change is also critical to evaluation, providing a framework that allows organizations to know what to evaluate and when. It builds on – and can usefully incorporate data gathered through – other approaches that have been developed to improve planning and evaluation, including ‘logic models/logframes’ and ‘results frames’.''
* JPAL’s guide on [https://www.povertyactionlab.org/sites/default/files/3.%20Theory%20of%20Change%202014.03.10.pdf guide] on Theory of Change
 
[[Category: Experimental Methods]]
* Examples of Theories of Change [[http://www.theoryofchange.org/library/toc-examples/]]
 
* [[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTIMPEVALTK/Resources/8811875-1346100017266/1.01_Graph_for_Theory_of_Change.docx| Theory of Change graph]] and [[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTIMPEVALTK/Resources/8811875-1346100017266/1.02_Results_Chain_Template.pptx| Results Change Template]] from the World Bank Results-Based Financing Impact Evaluation Toolkit
 
 
[[Category: Impact Evaluation Design]]

Latest revision as of 17:50, 9 August 2023

A theory of change is a detailed description of the mechanisms through which a change is expected to occur in a particular situation. A theory of change identifies the goals, preconditions, requirements, assumptions, interventions, and indicators of a program, providing important insight into and guidance on intervention and impact evaluation design.

Read First

  • A theory of change is best completed in the planning stages of an impact evaluation, as it can play a critical role in guiding intervention design, data collection, analysis, and reporting.

Building the Theory of Change

According to the Theory of Change website, a theory of change is built in six steps:

  1. Identify long-term goals.
  2. Backwards map and connect the preconditions and requirements necessary to achieve the goals. Explain why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
  3. Identify your basic assumptions about the context.
  4. Identify the interventions that will create your desired change.
  5. Develop indicators to measure outcomes.
  6. Write a narrative to explain the logic of the interventions.

Poverty Action Lab identifies seven similar steps to building a theory of change:

  1. Analyze the situation
  2. Clarify the program goal
  3. Design the program/product
  4. Map the causal pathway
  5. Identify explicit assumptions
  6. Design specific, measurable, achievable, reliable and time-bound indicators
  7. Convert to logical framework.

Applications

The theory of change uses backwards mapping to create a set of connected outcomes known as the “pathway of change”. The “pathway of change” graphically represents the change process and acts as the skeleton around which the other elements of the theory are developed. The “pathway of change” typically follows the following structure:

If inputs and activities produce outputs, this should lead to outcomes which will ultimately contribute to goals.

A theory of change empowers organizations and initiatives to achieve, measure, and show their impact. It provides evaluators with a framework on which they can base hypotheses, evaluation questions, and outcomes of interest. It also identifies key indicators, guiding evaluators towards the “what” and “when” of evaluation and strengthening monitoring systems overall.

Back to Parent

This article is part of the topic Experimental Methods

Additional Resources

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