Difference between revisions of "Pre-Analysis Plan"

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<onlyinclude>A pre-analysis plan (PAP) lays out how the researcher will analyze data, at the design stage of an impact evaluation. The objective of a PAP is to prevent data mining and specification searching. </onlyinclude>
<onlyinclude>A pre-analysis plan (PAP) is a document produced at the design stage of an impact evaluation that sets out in advance how the researcher will analyze data. While the main objective of a PAP is to prevent data mining and specification searching, it can also help the researcher think through questionnaire design and, once data is collected, make data analysis much quicker and easier. This page will briefly summarize the pros and cons of a PAP, outline its elements, and provide additional resources.</onlyinclude>
 


== Read First ==
== Read First ==
While most economics journals do not currently require PAPs as a condition for publication, researchers may choose to produce a PAP prior to data analysis to: (i) increase the credibility of their findings; and (ii) help researchers finetune their analysis strategy.
*PAPs increase credibility of research findings and help researchers to fine tune their analysis strategy.
 
*PAPs may tie researcher hands to ex ante analysis plans and limit opportunities of exploratory learning.
While PAPs provide the benefit of potentially reducing the prevalence of spurious results, this comes at the cost of tying researcher hands more formally to ex ante analysis plans that may limit the potential of exploratory learning. Benjamin Olken provides a summary of the costs and benefits associated with fully pre-specifying the analysis for a development economics RCT [https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.61]. He notes that "forcing all papers to be fully pre-specified from start to end would likely results in simpler papers, which could potentially lose some of the nuance of current work", but that "in many contexts, pre-specification of one (or a few) key primary outcome variables, statistical specifications, and control variables offers a number of advantages".
 
== Guidelines ==


The Berkeley Institute for Transparency in Social Sciences prepared a template for * [https://www.bitss.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Pre-Analysis-Plan-Template.pdf Pre-Analysis Plans], which provides the overall structure and guidance on what details to include (.doc and .tex formats available).  
==Overview==
While most economics journals do not currently require PAPs as a condition for publication, researchers may choose to produce a PAP prior to data analysis to: (i) increase the credibility of their findings, and (ii) fine tune their analysis strategy.


We recommend also consulting this [http://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/a-pre-analysis-plan-checklist Pre-analysis plan checklist] from the Development Impact Blog.  
While PAPs may reduce the prevalence of spurious results, they threaten to formally tie researcher hands to ex ante analysis plans that may limit the potential of exploratory learning. In Benjamin Olken’s [https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.61 paper] on the costs and benefits associated with fully pre-specifying the analysis for a development economics RCT, he notes that "forcing all papers to be fully pre-specified from start to end would likely results in simpler papers, which could potentially lose some of the nuance of current work," though "in many contexts, pre-specification of one (or a few) key primary outcome variables, statistical specifications, and control variables offers a number of advantages."


You can find 13 examples of pre-analysis plans at the [https://www.povertyactionlab.org/Hypothesis-Registry JPAL Hypothesis Registry].
== Elements ==


In [https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/a-pre-analysis-plan-checklist A Pre-Analysis Plan Checklist], David McKenzie outlines the elements to include in a PAP: a description of the sample to be used in the study, key data sources, hypotheses to be tested throughout the causal chain, a specification of how variables will be constructed and how the treatment effect equation will be estimated, a plan for dealing with multiple outcomes and multiple hypothesis testing, procedures to address survey attrition, methods to deal with outcomes with limited variation, and, if you are going to be testing a model, the model. Alejandro Ganimian’s [https://www.bitss.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Pre-Analysis-Plan-Template.pdf pre-analysis plan template] further lays out the elements to include in a PAP. It is available in .doc and .tex versions [https://www.bitss.org/resources/pre-analysis-plan-template/ here].


== Back to Parent ==
== Back to Parent ==
This article is part of the topic [[Research Ethics]]
This article is part of the topic [[Research Ethics]]


== Additional Resources ==
== Additional Resources ==
*Olken, Benjamin A.. 2015. "[https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.61 Promises and Perils of Pre-analysis Plans]." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3): 61-80.
DOI: 10.1257/jep.29.3.61


[[Category: Research Ethics]]
*You can find 13 examples of pre-analysis plans at the [https://www.povertyactionlab.org/Hypothesis-Registry JPAL Hypothesis Registry].
*Visit The Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS) [https://www.bitss.org/resource-tag/pre-analysis-plans/ dedicated page] for pre-analysis plans.
*Previously mentioned on this page, and worth repeating: David McKenzie's [https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/a-pre-analysis-plan-checklist pre-analysis plan checklist], and Benjamin Olken's [https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.61 Promises and Perils of Pre-Analysis Plans]
[[Category: Research Ethics ]].

Revision as of 20:36, 29 April 2019

A pre-analysis plan (PAP) is a document produced at the design stage of an impact evaluation that sets out in advance how the researcher will analyze data. While the main objective of a PAP is to prevent data mining and specification searching, it can also help the researcher think through questionnaire design and, once data is collected, make data analysis much quicker and easier. This page will briefly summarize the pros and cons of a PAP, outline its elements, and provide additional resources.

Read First

  • PAPs increase credibility of research findings and help researchers to fine tune their analysis strategy.
  • PAPs may tie researcher hands to ex ante analysis plans and limit opportunities of exploratory learning.

Overview

While most economics journals do not currently require PAPs as a condition for publication, researchers may choose to produce a PAP prior to data analysis to: (i) increase the credibility of their findings, and (ii) fine tune their analysis strategy.

While PAPs may reduce the prevalence of spurious results, they threaten to formally tie researcher hands to ex ante analysis plans that may limit the potential of exploratory learning. In Benjamin Olken’s paper on the costs and benefits associated with fully pre-specifying the analysis for a development economics RCT, he notes that "forcing all papers to be fully pre-specified from start to end would likely results in simpler papers, which could potentially lose some of the nuance of current work," though "in many contexts, pre-specification of one (or a few) key primary outcome variables, statistical specifications, and control variables offers a number of advantages."

Elements

In A Pre-Analysis Plan Checklist, David McKenzie outlines the elements to include in a PAP: a description of the sample to be used in the study, key data sources, hypotheses to be tested throughout the causal chain, a specification of how variables will be constructed and how the treatment effect equation will be estimated, a plan for dealing with multiple outcomes and multiple hypothesis testing, procedures to address survey attrition, methods to deal with outcomes with limited variation, and, if you are going to be testing a model, the model. Alejandro Ganimian’s pre-analysis plan template further lays out the elements to include in a PAP. It is available in .doc and .tex versions here.

Back to Parent

This article is part of the topic Research Ethics

Additional Resources